Valley Pathways Study Will Help Guide Region to Net-Zero Emissions

It’s a warm summer evening in Johnson City, Tennessee.

As the setting sun casts light on the city’s sign, early nightlife begins to stir.

Teenagers perform skateboarding tricks against a backdrop of towering mountains. Couples explore downtown streets. Children splash in a nearby creek.

As dusk falls, a street musician’s serenade blends with distant sounds of karaoke.

In this setting, a question lingers: What is the future of clean energy for this growing community, and the many like it throughout the Valley region?

TVA has partnered with the University of Tennessee’s Baker School of Public Policy and Public Affairs on a landmark study that explores this very question for the region’s communities and industries.

The Valley Pathways Study establishes a baseline to capture the characteristics of the region's carbon emissions, which will help chart a course to net-zero emissions by 2050.

“Net zero means that emissions are being offset by some sequestration, either from forests, soils or plants, or through the human-made variety of carbon capture,” Baker School economics professor Charles Sims, Ph.D., said.

Sims, who co-led the study, presented the findings to the TVA Board in early 2024.

TVA is forging partnerships with local communities, businesses and conservation groups to help shape actions that can lead the region to a net-zero carbon emissions economy.

Baker School economics professor Charles Sims, Ph.D., co-led the Valley Pathways Study, which will help chart a course to net-zero emissions.

‘A Competitive, Clean Economy’

With TVA’s seven-state region growing three times faster than the national average, the demand for electricity is growing alongside it.

And to meet this demand, TVA’s energy must be affordable, reliable, resilient and clean.

In 2023, TVA – already a national leader in carbon reduction – achieved a 53% reduction in carbon emissions intensity from a 2005 baseline. Today, 55% of TVA’s generation comes from carbon-free sources – nuclear, hydropower and solar.

As TVA continues to shape a clean energy economy, the Valley Pathways Study will play an integral role.

Launched in early 2023, the study assembled 24 stakeholders from diverse fields such as transportation, agriculture, manufacturing and academia to help pinpoint carbon emissions sources.

“Given all the progress that’s been made in electricity generation, we came together to think of strategies that would be beneficial for getting greenhouse gas emissions out of the rest of the Tennessee Valley economy,” Sims said.

Stakeholders evaluated greenhouse gas emissions data and offered perspectives on achieving a future with net-zero emissions in their respective economic sectors.

They analyzed energy demands of daily life – commuting, cooling offices, manufacturing processes and more – and traced these to emission sources.

The study has ultimately identified four pathways that will help lead to a net-zero emissions future.

Each pathway harnesses emerging technologies that cut emissions while fostering economic prosperity.

“The subtitle for this study is, ‘Building a Competitive, Clean Economy,’ because that's what we're after,” said Laura Duncan, TVA’s senior project manager for the Valley Pathways Study.

“We want to ensure that we're being economically viable, sustainable and competitive while reducing emissions across the Valley region.”

The Baker School of Public Policy and Public Affairs at University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

Moving Communities Forward

Imagine a road with four diverging paths, each leading to a net-neutral destination.

One of those routes achieves net zero by enhancing energy efficiency in homes and businesses.

Simple measures – weatherproofing, for example, and installing energy-saving appliances – can trim emissions while also improving comfort.

These measures can also help manage energy costs for the 22% of Valley households experiencing energy burdens.

Programs like TVA EnergyRight incentivize these upgrades, offering residents and businessowners rebates and savings. That means more money spent within local economies.

On a broader scale, improvements in urban design can promote biking, walking and public transportation over single-person vehicles, further reducing energy consumption and emissions.

In rural communities, innovative farming practices have emerged to lower greenhouse gas emissions without impacting output of crops and livestock.

An electric vehicle charger in downtown Johnson City, Tennessee. The expansion of charging infrastructure helps set the stage for reducing transportation-related emissions.

Electric Future

The second path to net-zero carbon is the electrification of certain machines and processes.

Electric vehicles, high-efficiency heat pumps and electric boilers provide people and businesses different options for cutting their carbon emissions. The benefits of electrification should be evaluated and balanced to avoid inadvertently shifting emissions to another sector, Duncan said.

The expansion of charging infrastructure, supported by initiatives like the Fast Charge Network, sets the stage for reducing transportation-related emissions.

Since the Fast Charge program started in 2022, TVA has facilitated the installation of 76 chargers at 33 sites across the Valley region, with a goal of 80 sites by 2026.

Transportation is currently the region’s leading source of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for about 36%.

TVA's local power company partners are playing an important role in this transition to electrification.

Leaders at BrightRidge, in Johnson City, Tennessee, are working to fully convert their vehicle fleet to electric, encouraging local businesses to follow suit.

“Our customers are just as focused on their own carbon reduction efforts as TVA is,” said Bonnie Donnolly, chief development and marketing strategy officer at BrightRidge. “We’re embracing the idea of what we can do as a local power company to help them achieve this goal."

Sheep graze near solar panels at the BrightRidge headquarters. Cleaner power sources will play a leading role in a net-zero emissions future.

New Technologies

The third route to net neutrality involves a pivotal shift in power generation.

The electricity sector is moving away from sources like coal in favor of cleaner alternatives such as solar, wind, hydro and nuclear and the development of innovative low-carbon fuels.

TVA is driving toward 10,000 megawatts of solar energy by 2035. The enterprise currently has 4,000 megawatts of solar in commercial operation or in development.

Companies throughout the region are following suit.

At BrightRidge headquarters, sheep graze under the cool shadows of solar panels that greet visitors. The local power company has invested in solar farms across the region, including a 5-megawatt facility just outside of Jonesborough, a 9-megawatt farm in Washington County and a 12-megawatt farm slated for operation in 2025.

Children splash in a creek in northeast Tennessee. A net-zero emissions economy won’t just benefit the environment – it should also enhance economic prosperity and improve lives.

Powered by Partners

The final path to net-zero carbon emissions can be captured neatly in a single word.

Unity.

These goals will require a collective effort.

With the help of the public and a group of stakeholders, TVA’s ongoing Integrated Resource Plan is developing options to ensure TVA can continue to provide affordable, reliable, resilient and increasingly cleaner power.

The Valley region will need to reduce fuel emissions from vehicles, homes and factories by 70% to 80%, then offset the balance through sequestration methods, such as carbon capture and reforestation to achieve net zero.

Stakeholders in every sector can play a role through energy efficiency, electrification, new technology and other tools for reducing carbon emissions.

An initiative at Georgia-based WestRock, for example, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 28% come 2030.

“We’ve adopted one of the most aggressive renewable energy and emissions targets you can adopt,” Kirk Covington, of WestRock’s Global Energy team, said. “We wanted to do that because it’s the right thing to do – but also, our customers are driving it.”

Policy, too, can shape a level playing field to help companies of all sizes meet net-zero targets.

Consumers can help drive markets to reduce emissions by directing dollars to like-minded companies and products.

In the end, a net-zero emissions economy is beneficial not only because it protects the environment – it should also enhance economic prosperity and improve life for all Americans.

“The long-term strategy is making sure that folks are better off as we embark on this path toward net zero,” Sims said. “When we reach net zero, I would like to go out and ask people, ‘Are you better off now than you were before?'”

PHOTO AT TOP OF PAGE: A lighted mural in downtown Johnson City highlights the importance of sustainability for future generations.